It’s do-or-die time for Real Madrid as they welcome Arsenal to the Santiago Bernabéu after suffering what may have been their most painful defeat of the season — a 3-0 loss in London. That result now puts Los Blancos on the brink of elimination from the competition that has become synonymous with their success.

No one can count out the most successful club in Champions League history, especially when the second leg is at home, but the task ahead won’t be easy against a strong and disciplined Arsenal side.

What Does Real Madrid Need to Reach the Champions League Semifinals?

The Spanish giants must score at least three goals just to level the aggregate. If Arsenal fails to find the net, a 4-0 win would send Real Madrid through. However, if the Gunners manage to score even once, the scenario becomes significantly tougher for the hosts.

Any loss, draw, or victory by fewer than three goals would see Real Madrid eliminated from the competition.

With the away goals rule no longer in effect, an aggregate tie after 180 minutes will result in extra time, and possibly penalties.

Who Would Real Madrid Face in the Semifinals?

Should they pull off the comeback, Real Madrid would most likely face Paris Saint-Germain, who secured a commanding 3-1 away win in the first leg of their quarterfinal clash. Luis Enrique’s side still needs to finish the job in the return leg against Aston Villa to book a semifinal date.

Against the Odds

Overturning a three-goal first-leg deficit on the road has only been done 5.88% of the time. Out of 238 instances where a home team won the first leg by three or more goals, the comeback happened only 14 times, according to BeSoccer Pro data shared with EFE.