France faces the final matchday of Group D in Euro 2024 practically qualified, with eight out of nine possible result combinations in their favor. However, there is one scenario against them: if they lose and the Netherlands also lose by a smaller goal difference against Austria.

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Having won against Austria (1-0) in the first matchday and drawn against the Netherlands (0-0) in the second, France awaits their match against Poland on Tuesday in Dortmund. There's still uncertainty over Kylian Mbappé's inclusion due to a nose fracture and adaptation to a protective mask. This is the only sequence of results that could jeopardize their progression, though they could still advance as one of the best third-placed teams.

There are two essential circumstances that could eliminate them. The first is a defeat to Poland, who have yet to earn a point in this Eurocup and are already eliminated. The second is if the Netherlands, also on four points, lose to Austria, who have three points.

Even in that scenario, France would need to lose by the same or a greater goal difference than the Netherlands. Alternatively, they could lose by the same goal difference as the Dutch but score at least two more goals against Poland, as both teams currently have a goal difference of +1, with the Dutch scoring more goals: 2 to 1.

France hasn't been eliminated in the group stage of the Eurocup since 2008, when they finished their group with two defeats (0-2 to Italy and 1-4 to the Netherlands) and one draw (0-0 with Romania).

They also didn't progress past this stage in the 1992 edition, drawing in the first two matchdays against Sweden (1-1) and England (0-0), before losing to Denmark (1-2) in the third match.