The Champions League returns for the penultimate matchday, with a lot at stake in the clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at the Parc des Princes.

When the draw was made, many would have predicted this would be a top-of-the-table clash in the group. The reality is far from that, as both teams are flirting with an early elimination.

While neither team will seal their fate on Wednesday, both know that anything less than a win will put them in danger of potentially being eliminated at the group stage.

City seems to have returned to their best form this new year, coming into this game with confidence after a 6-0 thrashing of Ipswich Town, extending their unbeaten run to six matches in all competitions.

Meanwhile, PSG has also looked solid lately, remaining unbeaten in their last eight matches.
Who will come out on top? Using Opta data, we dive into the key insights ahead of this crucial clash.

What’s expected?

PSG has won only one of their seven encounters with City in European competitions (2 draws, 4 losses), which represents their lowest win percentage against a single opponent they have faced more than five times in Europe (14%).

However, they won their last home match against City in the Champions League, despite attempting only six shots (2-0 in September 2021). This remains the lowest number of shots PSG has recorded at home in the competition since 2003-04.

According to the Opta supercomputer, it will be a very tight match, with a 24.3% chance of ending in a draw—a result that benefits neither team. PSG has a slight edge with a 39.2% chance, thanks to the support of their fans at the Parc des Princes, while City has a 36.5% chance of winning.

As for the managers, Luis Enrique and Pep Guardiola will meet for the fifth time in the Champions League, with both having won two matches each. Notably, Luis Enrique is, along with Jürgen Klopp, one of only two managers to have beaten Guardiola by three or more goals on multiple occasions.

Can PSG make a comeback?

PSG has had a forgettable Champions League campaign so far. They are currently in 25th place in the league, just one point outside the playoff spots, although a win could boost them significantly.

The Parisians won their opening match against Girona, but four games without a win saw them plummet in the standings. Their recent 3-0 win over RB Salzburg marked their first away victory in this season's tournament, as well as their first time scoring away since April, when they defeated Barcelona 4-1.

However, their defense could be key on Wednesday against a City attack that has been unstoppable, scoring 20 goals in their last four matches.

New year, new City

The last time City played in the Champions League, they were in the midst of their worst run under Guardiola. Since then, they seem to have found their balance, with players like Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden playing crucial roles in recent matches.

However, their away form in the tournament has been concerning, with two consecutive losses. They have only lost more consecutively once, between November 2011 and December 2012.

Guardiola needs to avoid another slip-up in Paris to keep their Champions League dream alive.

Players to watch

Paris Saint-Germain – Achraf Hakimi
Hakimi has created 16 chances in this Champions League, being key in PSG’s attack. In the match against Salzburg, he assisted two of the team’s three goals.

Manchester City – Erling Haaland
In his first 11 away Champions League appearances, Haaland scored 11 goals with an impressive 33% conversion rate. However, in his last 11 away games, his conversion has dropped to 10%, with only four goals.