It is all to play for as Bayern Munich head to San Siro for the second leg of a delicately poised Champions League quarter-final tie.

Inter lead 2-1 on aggregate following goals from Lautaro Martinez and Davide Frattesi, which came either side of an effort from Thomas Muller.

The Serie A leaders – runners-up to Manchester City in 2023 – pulled off something of a smash-and-grab at Allianz Arena, where Vincent Kompany’s Bayern had 20 attempts and registered 2.3 expected goals.

That is twice as many shots as the visitors had, and over double the xG (0.78), but it was Inter who came away with a slender advantage.

"We had great depth in our game and that makes us happy," said Inter boss Simone Inzaghi after the first leg.

"We know Bayern's numbers, we did something important, but it will not matter unless we do it in the second leg at San Siro in front of our fans, too. We know it is only half-time in the tie."

Kompany, meanwhile, lamented the chances his team missed, but is confident Bayern can get over the line.

He said: "I know Inter away from home is tough, but I don’t think we need to come out defeated because of injuries or things like that. We'll have our chances in Milan too."

Let's dive into some of the key pre-match facts and forecasts ahead of what promises to be an enthralling second leg.

What's expected?

Opta's supercomputer ran 10,000 data-led simulations, and Bayern came out on top in 38.5% of them.

Inter, meanwhile, were victors in this leg on 36.3% of the outcomes. The Nerazzurri's overall chances of progressing from the tie are at 72%.

They have a 17% probability of winning the trophy, while Bayern's chances are ranked at just 4%.

However, Bayern have reason to be positive. They have won all four of their away games against Inter in European competition, including all three in the Champions League without conceding a single goal (2-0 in 2006, 1-0 in 2011 and 2-0 in 2022).

This is Inter's longest losing streak at home to an opponent across all European competitions.

The last six meetings between Inter and Bayern in the Champions League have seen both sides win three times each, while only one of those six victories has been achieved by the team playing at home (Bayern winning 2-0 at home in November 2022).

Fortress San Siro

Inter have been imperious at home in this competition in recent years.

Inzaghi's team are unbeaten in their last 14 home games in the Champions League (won 12, drawn two). This is now the longest current run in the competition, after they ended Bayern's 22-game streak at the Allianz Arena in the first leg.

The Nerazzurri have also progressed from 21 of their previous 23 knockout stage ties in the European Cup/Champions League after winning the first leg.

One of those two eliminations did come last season, however, losing on penalties against Atletico Madrid in the last 16, after winning 1-0 in the first leg (2-2 on aggregate, lost 3-2 on penalties).

They have conceded only three Champions League goals this season, so their success has been built on solid foundations.

Though it is not all about sitting back and soaking up attacks. In fact, Inter applied 573 high-intensity pressures in the first leg, the most by a team in a Champions League game this season, as they aimed to catch Bayern in possession.

One of their consistent performers at the back has been Benjamin Pavard, who has tallied up 10 appearances in the competition this term. The former Bayern defender could make his 50th Champions League appearance on Wednesday.

With 40 wins from his 49 games to date (drawn five, lost four), he already has the most victories by any player within their first 50 matches in the competition’s history.

Could it be Muller time?

Bayern have only progressed from one of their last eight Champions League knockout stage ties after losing the first leg, although that did come in the most recent one (3-1 on aggregate against Lazio in the round of 16 last season).

Matters could have been quite different had they been more clinical in the first leg, though. Though underperforming their xG is nothing new for Bayern this term.

Kompany's side have the best expected goal difference in the Champions League this season (+19.3 – 32.6 xG for, 13.3 xG against), though their actual goal difference is just +13 (29 scored, 16 conceded).

This represents the biggest negative difference of any side to qualify from the league phase (-6.3).

The player who got Bayern's equaliser last week, before Frattesi struck at the other end, was veteran campaigner Muller.

Muller, who is soon set to tally up his 500th Bundesliga appearance, will be leaving Bayern at the end of the season.

And should he feature on Wednesday, he will equal Lionel Messi (163) for Champions League appearances, leaving him only behind Cristiano Ronaldo (183) and Iker Casillas (177) overall.

With his goal in the first leg, the German became the oldest player to score in a knockout stage game in the competition for Bayern (35 years, 207 days). Could he do the damage again?

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Inter - Lautaro Martinez

Martinez's opener last week was an exceptional, outside-of-the-boot finish that displayed the world-class quality the forward possesses in abundance, and took him to seven Champions League goals for the season.

The Argentine has scored in each of his last four Champions League games, and could become the first Inter player to net in five consecutive appearances in the competition.

Only two players have scored more for Inter in a single Champions League campaign than Martinez this season: Hernan Crespo in 2002-03 (nine) and Samuel Eto’o in 2010-11 (eight), so he is keeping elite company.

Bayern Munich - Harry Kane

At the opposite end of the pitch, Harry Kane's radar was off in the first leg, though. He had six shots and accumulated 1.0 xG, yet only managed to hit the target twice. He will be expecting more from himself this time around.

With 50 goal contributions to his name in the Champions League (39 goals, 11 assists), Kane is just three away from surpassing David Beckham's record for an English player in the competition (52).

Will he go and get that share of history on Wednesday, and propel Bayern into the last four?