Karolina Muchova secured an upset at the China Open, snapping Aryna Sabalenka's 15-match winning streak to reach the semi-finals.

The Czech prevailed in two hours and 48 minutes with a 7-6 (7-5) 2-6 6-4 win over the number one seed on Friday.

Muchova started strong, forcing Sabalenka to defend three break points in the opening game, but they were evenly matched throughout.

Sabalenka almost took the first set, but Muchova held her nerve, successfully fighting back against two set points before taking the tie-break.

The Belarusian looked back to her free-flowing best in the second though, earning two breaks as she forced the decider in comfortable fashion.

Sabalenka took an early lead in the final set, but from 4-2 down, Muchova clawed her way back, going on a four-game winning streak at the end to book a meeting with Qinwen Zheng or Mirra Andreeva in the final four. 

Data Debrief: Czech mate

Given Sabalenka's recent hot streak, this does look like an upset, but it is actually pretty run-of-the-mill for Muchova.

She has now won her last three matches against Sabalenka in WTA events, defeating her at Cincinnati, Roland Garros 2023 and China Open 2024. 

Excluding the BJK Cup, only Iga Swiatek (85.3%) has a higher winning percentage than Muchova on hard-court in WTA events during 2024 (84.6%, 11-2), surpassing Sabalenka (82.5%, 33-7).

The 28-year-old has reached just her second career semi-final and is the player with the fewest WTA-1000 wins during the season before the start of the China Open (one) to reach this stage of the tournament.