Two of Europe's form teams face off on Wednesday, as Paris Saint-Germain welcome Liverpool to the Parc des Princes for the first leg of a mouthwatering Champions League last-16 tie.

Both PSG and Liverpool are cruising towards titles in Ligue 1 and the Premier League respectively.

Liverpool are given a 98.7% chance of winning the Premier League by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks PSG's probability of winning Ligue 1 at 100%.

While PSG stormed to a 4-1 defeat of Lille on Saturday, Liverpool come into this clash well rested, after they had the weekend off following their shock FA Cup exit last month.

This tie does not feature only two of Europe's best teams, but also two of the continent's best attackers this season.

Mohamed Salah has been sensational for Liverpool, while Ousmane Dembele seems to be filling the Kylian Mbappe-shaped void in PSG's forward line.

Last month, Luis Enrique suggested PSG were a better team without Mbappe, who is now thriving at Real Madrid after a difficult start in the Spanish capital.

PSG went on to beat Brest 10-0 over two legs in the Champions League play-offs to reach the last 16.

In doing so, PSG became the first team in Champions League history to have seven different goalscorers in a single match and the first to have three substitutes score in the same game.

It was also PSG's biggest European win in what was their 285th such match. However, facing Liverpool will be an altogether different test of Luis Enrique's theory.

What's expected?

This will be just the third Champions League meeting between Liverpool and PSG.

They previously played each other in the 2018-19 group stage, with the Reds winning 3-2 at home and losing 1-2 away, so there is an even head-to-head record as it stands.

This is the first time these teams will play each other in the knockout stages of a major European competition since meeting in the semi-final of the Cup Winners’ Cup in 1996-97, with PSG progressing to the final following a 3-2 aggregate victory.

Liverpool have not won any of their last five away games against French sides in Europe (D2 L3), with their last such victory coming at Marseille in September 2008 (2-1 in the Champions League).

However, Reds head coach Arne Slot is unbeaten against French opposition in major European competition, winning two of his three matches and drawing the other. The most recent of those games was a 2-1 win over Lille in this season’s league phase.

But who are the favourites for this match, and the tie overall? 

Across the 10,000 data-led simulations of the first leg run by Opta's supercomputer, PSG came out on top in 39.8%, with Liverpool winning 35.1% and the draw coming in at 25.1%.

However, while PSG are made favourites for the first leg, it is Liverpool who are backed to progress from the tie, at 58.3%. 

Dembele finally delivering 

For a long time, it had looked as though Dembele would fail to deliver on his immense promise.

His spectacular rise at Rennes and then Borussia Dortmund resulted in him being the winger Barcelona drafted in to replace Neymar when the Brazilian departed for PSG in 2017.

Yet Dembele could never truly find his feet at Barca, and even a move to PSG in 2023 did not immediately see him find his very best form.

This season, though, has been different.

Dembele has been superb, whether playing centrally (where he has spent 39% of his minutes) or on the right (where he has played 57% of the time).

He has netted 26 goals across all competitions for PSG, adding six assists. Dembele has managed to outperform his own 19.49 expected goals (xG) by 6.51, showing just how on point his finishing has been.

Since the turn of 2025, Dembele has been in incredible form. 

The France international is scoring 1.87 goals per 90 and providing 1.97 goal contributions per 90 in 2025, while averaging a goal every 48 minutes.

Dembele squandered a huge chance for Barca against Liverpool back in the 2019 semi-finals, so he could well be even more motivated to deliver now on the big stage. 

PSG had to get through the play-offs to reach the last 16, but Luis Enrique's team are on a five-game win streak in the Champions League, scoring 21 goals and only conceding three times in this run. They last won six in a row in the competition in the 1994-95 campaign.

They are the joint-second-highest goalscorers in all competitions of teams in Europe's top five leagues, with their 105 strikes ranking behind only Barcelona (124) this season.

If Dembele maintains his form across these two legs, PSG have no reason to fear Liverpool.

Salah the difference for the favourites?

According to Opta's model, Liverpool are the competition favourites overall, with their current chances of winning their seventh European crown coming in at 19.2%, with PSG's likelihood of a maiden Champions League triumph being 9.5%.

Liverpool's attack was not always firing on all cylinders in the league phase, yet Slot's team finished top of the league phase.

Their success was built on solid foundations - only Arsenal (5.82) recorded a lower expected goals against (xGA) than Liverpool's 7.0 across the first eight fixtures.

At the top end of the pitch, though, they have a player who is surely the prime candidate for this year's Ballon d'Or.

Salah already has a remarkable 52 goal contributions (30 goals, 22 assists) in all competitions this term.

The 32-year-old has outperformed his 26.04 xG, scoring around four more goals than he would have been anticipated to based on the quality of chances that have come his way, showing his exceptional finishing.

It must be mentioned that Liverpool have lost each of their last three games in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

That being said, all three of those have been against Real Madrid (2021-22 final and home/away in 2022-23 last 16). Indeed, since the start of 2020-21, four of their five losses in the knockout stages of the competition have come against Los Blancos, with Inter (in March 2022) the only other side to beat them in that time.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

PSG - Achraf Hakimi

While Dembele is PSG's talisman in attack, Liverpool cannot just look to pin him down and think their job is done.

Flying full-back Hakimi leads all defenders in the Champions League this season for chances created (12) and assists (four) made while under high-intensity pressure from an opposition player.

Indeed, his four such assists are the most of any player in the competition this term.

Hakimi also tops the Champions League charts for chances created by a defender (24), with all of those coming from open play.

Liverpool - Mohamed Salah

Salah has been directly involved in 20 goals in 30 appearances in the knockout stages of the Champions League (12 goals, eight assists); the most by an African player in the competition’s history (one more than Samuel Eto'o and Didier Drogba).

Despite his fearsome form this season, Salah has perhaps not been as clinical as one would have anticipated in the Champions League.

He scored just twice in the league phase, underperforming his 4.52 xG. His shot conversion rate was 11.54%, whereas across all competitions this season it is 22.22%.

But Salah is a big player for the big moments, and PSG must be at their very best to keep him quiet.