Wednesday's dramatic 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain left Manchester City on the brink of an early Champions League exit, with their worst campaign under Pep Guardiola threatening to reach a new lows.

In the Premier League, however, City have turned a corner lately, taking 10 points from their last four games to boost their hopes of a top-four finish. 

They have a chance to move into the Champions League spots on Saturday, when they welcome Chelsea to the Etihad Stadium.

This will be the latest City have faced Chelsea in the Premier League while below them in the table since 2016-17. On that occasion, Antonio Conte’s Blues won 2-1 at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 30 en route to winning the title.

Enzo Maresca’s hopes of overseeing a title charge are surely over after Chelsea went five league games without a victory either side of New Year, though they put a halt to their slump by beating Wolves 3-1 on Monday.

Which way will Saturday's heavyweight contest go? Read on for our Opta-powered preview.

What's expected? 

City are considered favourites for Saturday's game, but with the champions assigned a 46.3% win probability, the supercomputer is not ruling out a result for Chelsea.

The chances of a draw are rated at 23.6%, with Chelsea assigned a 30.2% chance of victory.

City have lost their last three Premier League games played immediately after a European midweek game, as many as they had in their previous 34 (21 wins, 10 draws). The last time the Citizens lost four such matches in a single campaign was back in 2010-11.

In the supercomputer's season predictions, City's title hopes are rated at 0.2%, but they do make the top four in 65.6% of simulations, with Chelsea doing so in 43.8% of scenarios.

City are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against Chelsea, winning five and drawing two since a 2-1 home loss in May 2021, a result that delayed their coronation as Premier League champions.

Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League away games against City, winning 1-0 in February 2014.

They have failed to score themselves on seven occasions in that run, while they were also shut out when the teams faced off at Stamford Bridge on the opening matchday of 2024-25, losing 2-0.

Time for new-look City?

After a run of just one win in nine Premier League games from the start of November (two draws, six defeats), City have now won three of their last four (D1). 

They have scored 14 goals in this run, more than they had in their previous 11 league games (13), putting six past Ipswich Town last Sunday to record the biggest win of the Premier League season to date.

However, their fragility at the back was exposed again by PSG on Wednesday. Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland put City 2-0 ahead, only for the hosts to come roaring back to win.

It was the first time City had lost a game having led by two goals in any competition since May 2021 – a 3-2 Premier League defeat to Brighton and Hove Albion.

The unravelling of City's title defence has led Guardiola to do something he does not often need to – search for solutions in the January transfer market.

City have strengthened their backline by signing Abdukodir Khusanov from Lens and Vitor Reis from Palmeiras. With Ruben Dias doubtful for Saturday and Nathan Ake certainly out, City – who have already fielded eight different centre-back partnerships in the Premier League this season – could throw one of their new boys into the firing line.

Khusanov should bring some old-school toughness, ranking in the 94th percentile for defensive actions this season among all Ligue 1 players. Reis, meanwhile, won 66.2% of his aerial duels in the Brazilian Serie A last season, a better rate than any of City's centre-backs have managed in the Premier League this campaign.

At the other end of the pitch, City will hope Omar Marmoush can make an immediate impact following his £63million move from Eintracht Frankfurt.

Prior to leaving Eintracht, Marmoush had 20 goals and 13 assists in 26 games in all competitions in 2024-25. Alongside fellow Egyptian Mohamed Salah, Marmoush is one of just two players from Europe’s top five leagues in double figures for goals and assists in all competitions this term.

While Guardiola prefers to ease his new signings in, desperate times could call for desperate measures, and we could get a first glimpse of a new-look City side this weekend.

Madueke set for stardom?

Noni Madueke was back among the goals as Chelsea beat Wolves on Monday, having scored a hat-trick against the same opponents in a 6-2 away win back in August.

Only Diego Costa against Swansea City in 2014-15, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink against Tottenham in 2001-02 and Gianluca Vialli against Barnsley in 1997-98 (all five) have scored more goals against a side in a Premier League season for the Blues.

The winger will now be looking to make a splash against top opponents, having edged out the likes of Jadon Sancho, Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku to nail down a starting spot in recent weeks.

Only Cole Palmer (14) and Nicolas Jackson (nine) have bettered Madueke's six league goals for Chelsea this season, with only the former (77) attempting more shots than the winger (61) despite Maresca rotating his wingers heavily. 

Among all Chelsea players, Madueke ranks second for dribbles attempted (54) and take-on ending carries (34) this campaign and is clear at the top of their charts for progressive carries of 10 yards or more, completing 89 in just 1,291 minutes of action.

Madueke's partnership with Palmer has been another major positive for the Blues this season. 

Palmer and Madueke have created 25 chances for each other in the Premier League this season, the most of any two players. Meanwhile, Palmer's 17 chances created for Madueke are the most one player has laid on for a specific team-mate this term.

With City likely to press high and leave space for Chelsea to exploit on the break, Madueke is certain to present a threat on the counterattack.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Phil Foden

Foden – the 2023-24 Premier League Player of the Season – has hit form in recent weeks, scoring in three straight league games (five goals in total). 

He has never scored in four in a row before but should be in high spirits after his brace against Ipswich Town last weekend.

Chelsea – Cole Palmer

City must, for all their success, harbour some regrets over the 2023 sale of academy graduate Palmer.

Palmer scored a last-minute penalty in his first game against City after joining Chelsea, back in November 2023, but he has failed to net in his two subsequent reunions with his old club.