As we gear up for the Champions League semi-finals, just two of the four clubs involved have title-winning pedigree on this stage.

Barcelona have been champions of Europe on five occasions but are yet to reach those heights in the post-Lionel Messi era, while Inter have ruled the continent three times, most recently under Jose Mourinho in 2009-10.

And after each saw off German opposition in the quarter-finals, Barca routing Borussia Dortmund and Inter coming through two tense meetings with Bayern Munich, they will face off for a spot in this season's showpiece.

Barcelona have had two tastes of silverware already this term, winning the Supercopa de Espana and more recently the Copa del Rey, and a clean sweep is now on their agenda.

And though Inter have stumbled in the Serie A title race and crashed out of the Coppa Italia, Simone Inzaghi's reputation as a knockout specialist means they should not be underestimated.  

But who will come out on top in Wednesday's first leg at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys? We dive into the best Opta facts and figures to make sense of a mouthwatering tie.

What's expected?

Ahead of the semi-finals getting under way on Tuesday, the Opta supercomputer made Barca second favourites to lift the famous old trophy.

They were assigned a 27% chance of going all the way, lower than Arsenal's 31% probability but higher than the respective hopes of Paris Saint-Germain (22%) and Inter (19%).

As far as this tie is concerned, the Blaugrana are given a 58% chance of progressing to Inter's 42%, with their win probability for the first leg standing at 55.2%.

The Nerazzurri are only given a 22.5% chance of building a first-leg lead on their travels, as they did against Bayern in the quarters, though they would surely take a draw – deemed a 22.3% chance.

The one previous European Cup/Champions League knockout-stage tie between these two giants was a memorable one, coming at the same stage of the 2009-10 edition.

On that occasion, Mourinho's Inter eliminated Pep Guardiola's Barca – then the reigning champions – 3-2 on aggregate, winning 3-1 at San Siro then limiting the Blaugrana to a 1-0 victory at Camp Nou.

While Inter edged the teams' biggest meeting, they have faced each other on 16 previous occasions in Europe overall, with Barca winning eight of those games (five draws, three losses).

The Nerazzurri are unbeaten in their last two against the Catalan giants, though, playing out a 3-3 draw at San Siro and winning 1-0 on their travels in the 2022-23 Champions League group stage. Barca fell at the first hurdle that campaign, while Inter reached the final.

However, Barcelona are unbeaten in their six home games against Inter in the Champions League (five wins, one draw). 

Those five home victories are their joint-most against any opponent in the Champions League/European Cup, also beating AC Milan five times, while they have only hosted Chelsea more often in the competition without losing (seven times).

Flick runs it back 

The 2019-20 season, the conclusion of which was played behind closed doors due to the Covid-19 pandemic, may not live long in the memory for many.

Unless, of course, you are Hansi Flick.

His all-conquering Bayern side won a Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal and Champions League treble less than a year after he took the reins, and he is now hoping to repeat the trick in his debut season with Barcelona.

The Blaugrana have already captured the Supercopa de Espana and Copa del Rey trophies with dramatic victories over Real Madrid, with Jules Kounde the extra-time hero as they won the final of the latter competition 3-2 last Saturday.

And with a four-point lead over Los Blancos at the top of LaLiga, this is shaping up to be a very memorable season indeed for the Blaugrana.

Since the turn of the year, Barca have only lost once in 28 games (22 wins, five draws excluding extra-time), with that defeat coming in the second leg of their quarter-final against Dortmund, as they took their foot off the gas after a 4-0 first-leg win.

They have scored 83 goals from 66.99 expected goals (xG) since the start of 2025, converting 58 of their 121 big chances. 

Their hopes of Champions League glory appeared to have taken a huge blow when Robert Lewandowski – who has 11 goals in the competition this campaign – suffered a hamstring injury that will cause him to miss both matches against Inter.

But Ferran Torres deputised capably against Madrid on Saturday, scoring a vital equaliser to force extra time. He is likely to be flanked by Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, two of the Champions League's star performers in 2024-25.

Yamal and Raphinha have combined for more goals than any other duo in the Champions League this term (five – two Yamal assists, three Raphinha assists), also creating the most chances for one another of any team-mate pairing (16 – eight each).

Raphinha's 51 goal involvements in all competitions this season (30 goals, 21 assists) are only bettered by Mohamed Salah of Liverpool (33 goals, 23 assists) across Europe's top five leagues, while Yamal has 34 goal involvements (14 goals, 20 assists).

If any team is equipped to cope with Lewandowski's absence, it's Barca, who have averaged 3.1 goals per game in the Champions League under Flick. The only club-manager duo with a better figure in the competition's history is Flick's Bayern, with 3.2.

Inter to channel spirit of 2010?

However, Barca's star-studded attack will come up against an Inter team that has already kept eight clean sheets in the Champions League this season.

Another would see them equal the record for most shutouts by an Italian team in a single edition, held jointly by rivals Milan in 2004-05 and Juventus in 2016-17.

Inzaghi has forged a reputation as a knockout specialist since arriving at Inter in 2021, winning the Coppa Italia twice, the Supercoppa Italiana on three occasions and leading them to the 2023 Champions League final.

He will oversee his 50th Champions League match here, becoming the seventh Italian coach to reach this milestone; the most for any nation (currently level with Spain). 

His 26 wins are already the most by an Italian manager through their first 50 Champions League matches (one ahead of Marcello Lippi, with 25).

And Inzaghi has showcased his game-management skills on the big stage once again this term. Inter have only spent 10 minutes and 54 seconds in a losing position in the Champions League in 2024-25, the shortest total time of any team. 

They did fall behind in the second leg of their quarter-final tie versus Bayern, but within nine minutes, goals from Lautaro Martinez and Benjamin Pavard had them 2-1 up on the night and 4-2 ahead on aggregate.

They showcased an ability to bend but not break – reminiscent of Mourinho's class of 2009-10 – in that tie. Inter faced 40 shots across their two meetings with Bayern, but the average xG value of each attempt was just 0.09. 

But Inter are not all about defensive fortitude, with Nicolo Barella capable of springing devastating counter-attacks from midfield. He has averaged 7.1 progressive passes per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season, the most of any player to play at least 500 minutes in the competition.

Of all Barella's passes, 12% have been progressive (a completed pass in the attacking two-thirds of the pitch that moves the ball at least 25% closer to the goal), the highest proportion of any central midfielder in this edition.

The Nerazzurri have wobbled domestically in recent weeks, going out of the Coppa Italia to Milan and slipping three points behind Napoli in the race for the Scudetto.

But if anyone is capable of frustrating Barca, it may just be the Nerazzurri.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Barcelona – Raphinha 

Raphinha has been directly involved in 26 goals in the Champions League to date, in just 24 appearances (15 goals, 11 assists). 

Only two players in the competition's history have more goal contributions over their first 25 games in the competition – Erling Haaland (36) and Luis Suarez (28).

Inter – Lautaro Martinez 

Martinez has scored in each of his last five appearances for Inter in the Champions League. 

If he finds the net again here, he will become just the second South American player to score in six consecutive games in the competition, after Edinson Cavani (seven for PSG between November 2016 and October 2017).