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The Numbers Game: Can Van Nistelrooy pounce on Amorim's home discomforts?
Manchester United welcome Premier League strugglers Leicester City to Old Trafford for an FA Cup fourth-round tie on Friday.
There is a reunion on the cards when Ruud van Nistelrooy takes his struggling Leicester City team to Old Trafford for an FA Cup fourth-round clash with Manchester United on Friday.
It was only last summer that Van Nistelrooy was appointed as then United boss Erik ten Hag's assistant coach. Fast forward to the end of October, and Van Nistelrooy was thrust into interim charge at Old Trafford after his Dutch compatriot's dismissal.
He was in charge for four matches in all competitions, and two of those came at home against Leicester - the Red Devils winning 5-2 in the EFL Cup and then 3-0 in the Premier League.
Van Nistelrooy was then out of the door following Ruben Amorim taking over as full-time boss - but was not without a job for long.
Steve Cooper was sacked by Leicester, and the Foxes confirmed Van Nistelrooy as their new manager.
It is fair to say, however, that it has not yet gone to plan for either Van Nistelrooy or Amorim, and the FA Cup could present a welcome distraction for both.
We delve into the numbers ahead of Friday's clash.
What's expected?
United are the big favourites to progress to round five, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 65.9% win likelihood.
Leicester came out on top in just 15.6% of our data-led simulations, while the probability of a draw is 18.5%.
United have never won three home games against one club in a season before, with Manchester City against Chelsea in 2022-23 the last time a Premier League side did so against a fellow top-flight opponent.
This is the fourth FA Cup meeting between United and Leicester – the Red Devils won the first two (3-1 in the 1962-63 final, 2-1 in the 1975-76 fifth round) while the Foxes won 3-1 in the most recent game in the 2020-21 quarter-final on their way to lifting the trophy.
After a run of five games without a win against Leicester between December 2020 and April 2022, United have now won their last four meetings with the Foxes by an aggregate score of 12-2.
Leaky Leicester
Van Nistelrooy's first reunion with his former club as a coach comes on the back of a torrid performance and result against Everton in the league. Leicester lost 4-0 at Goodison Park, where they conceded the fourth-quickest goal in Premier League history to Abdoulaye Doucoure.
That goal was also the 50th Leicester have shipped in the league this term. After 24 games, it is the earliest they have conceded a half-century of goals in the top flight since 1959-60, when they did so in their 23rd match.
Saturday's humbling defeat came after Leicester had hit back to claim a morale-boosting 2-1 win at Tottenham, but that was a victory they failed to build on.
They are now in the bottom three, two points from safety, and Van Nistelrooy has won just three games since he took over.
One of those wins came in the third round of the FA Cup - a 6-2 thrashing of Queens Park Rangers.
The Foxes won this famous trophy under Brendan Rodgers in 2021, and though the odds are not in their favour ahead of this tie, they have some reasons to be positive.
Ruben's false start
It has been far from plain sailing for Amorim since he replaced Ten Hag, with United particularly struggling at home.
United had won three straight games but lost 2-0 to Crystal Palace on Sunday, suffering their seventh home defeat of the season in the top tier. It is their joint-most home losses at this stage of a league campaign, joint with 1893-94.
In fact, since the beginning of last season, only Wolves (16) have lost more Premier League home games than United (13).
There is certainly hope for Leicester, who have progressed from seven of their last eight FA Cup fourth-round ties, a 4-1 away defeat to Nottingham Forest in 2021-22 the exception.
United have won 16 and drawn two of their last 18 FA Cup home matches, though, with Arsenal the last side to win in this competition at Old Trafford, a 2-1 victory in March 2015. Middlesbrough did also win on penalties there after a 1-1 draw in February 2022.
The Red Devils are 13th in the top flight, and qualifying for Europe through the league looks a pipe dream, so a run in the cup could prove crucial.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester United - Amad Diallo
Amorim has not yet managed to get consistent performances out of his team, though Diallo has been a persistent bright spark. He created six chances against Palace on Sunday, his joint-highest figure in a Premier League match (equalling the six he created against Southampton in September).
Since Amorim's first match in charge on November 24, Diallo has scored six goals and provided five assists.
His tally of 11 goal contributions is two more than any of his United team-mates in that time, while only Bruno Fernandes (46) has created more chances than Diallo (33) in all competitions under Amorim.
Leicester City - Jamie Vardy
Vardy had only nine touches against Everton before he was subbed off in the 60th minute, but if he is given the service, then the veteran campaigner is always a threat.
In 16 games against United in all competitions, Vardy has scored 19 goals, so the Red Devils will have to be alert to his threat.